From an industry perspective, several key industries in the manufacturing industry showed the following characteristics in April:
At present, the downward pressure on my country's economy continues to increase. Although the economic operation has shown a recovery improvement, demand is still insufficient. Enterprises are generally under great operating pressure. In addition, the international situation is complex and changeable. The automobile industry The task of maintaining steady growth is still heavy.
In April, due to the low base effect in the same period last year, the production and sales of the automobile market achieved significant year-on-year growth, but fell month-on-month. According to statistics from the China Automobile Association, in April 2023, my country's automobile production and sales reached 2.133 million units and 2.159 million units respectively, a month-on-month decrease of 17.5% and 11.9% respectively, and a year-on-year increase of 7.6% and 82.7% respectively. Passenger car production and sales completed 1.778 million units and 1.811 million units respectively, a month-on-month decrease of 17.3% and 1.02% respectively, and a year-on-year increase of 78.5% and 87.7% respectively. Commercial vehicle production and sales respectively completed 35.50,000 vehicles and 348,000 vehicles, a month-on-month decrease of 18.4% and 19.9% respectively, and a year-on-year increase of 8.8%. The production and sales of new energy vehicles were 640,000 and 636,000 respectively, a month-on-month decrease of 5% and 25% respectively, and a year-on-year increase of 1.1 times, with the market share reaching 29.5%.
Car monthly sales (data source: China Association of Automobile Manufacturers)
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Automobile exports remain at a high level. In April 2023, automobile companies exported 376,000 vehicles, a month-on-month increase of 3.3% and a year-on-year increase of 1.7 times. Exports of new energy vehicles reached 100,000 units, a month-on-month increase of 28.6% and a year-on-year increase of 8.4 times. In the first quarter of this year, my country's automobile export volume was 1.07 million units, a year-on-year increase of 58.1%, surpassing Japan's 954,000 units, becoming the world's largest automobile exporter.
Monthly sales of new energy vehicles (data source: China Association of Automobile Manufacturers)
●Confidence is insufficient and it will take time to recover construction machinery
Judging from the continuity data of excavator sales, domestic sales in April The year-on-year decline has narrowed, and the year-on-year increase in export sales has also narrowed. The industry's overall sales continue to be under pressure. In April, according to data released by the China Construction Machinery Industry Association, sales of various excavators were 18,772 units, a year-on-year decrease of 23.5%. Among them, 9,513 units were domestic, a year-on-year decrease of 40.7%; 9,259 units were exported, a year-on-year increase of 8.9%.
Excavator monthly sales and growth rate (data source: China Construction Machinery Industry Association , Oriental Securities Research Institute)
In terms of loaders, sales in April were 9,693 units, down 11.7% year-on-year, of which 5,216 units were sold in the domestic market, down 34.6% year-on-year, and 4,432 units were exported. A year-on-year increase of 51.5%; for truck cranes, a total of 2,716 units were sold in April, a year-on-year increase of 14.9%; for forklifts, a total of 99,950 units were sold in April, a year-on-year increase of 10.5%. Affected by various factors, the sales of major construction machinery products increased or decreased in April. However, due to the long-term boost from infrastructure investment and the strong boost from exports, the construction machinery industry hasHope to recover slowly.
●Profit recovery, petrochemical boom index returned to normal
According to the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation and Shandong Judging from the petroleum and chemical industry prosperity index jointly compiled by Zhuochuang Information Co., Ltd., the petroleum and chemical industry prosperity index rebounded in April 2023, rising to 98.85, entering the normal range, with a month-on-month increase of 6.18 percentage points; but it fell from April 2022 4.89 percentage points, the year-on-year decline has expanded.
In April, as expectations for recovery on the demand side increased, the industry-wide phased destocking pressure eased. In early April, the rebound in international oil prices led to a rebound in petrochemical product prices, and the profits of the petroleum and chemical industry rebounded significantly. , the prosperity index increased significantly month-on-month. In terms of industries, under the expectation of demand recovery in the peak season, as the temperature rebounded and the demand for travel and freight increased, the fuel processing industry prosperity index increased by 8.67 percentage points month-on-month, the largest increase among sub-industries; the oil and natural gas exploration industry prosperity index increased month-on-month 3.05 percentage points, the smallest increase among sub-sectors, and the prosperity index returned to the overheating range; the prosperity indexes of the chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry and the rubber, plastic and other polymer products manufacturing industry both rebounded by more than 6 percentage points month-on-month, in line with seasonal characteristics .
●The peak season is not prosperous, and both supply and demand ends of the steel industry have tightened
From which the Wulian Steel Logistics Professional Committee According to released data, the steel PMI in April was 45%, a month-on-month decrease of 3.4 percentage points, and a month-on-month decrease for two consecutive months, indicating that the steel industry has slowed down. According to the changes in sub-indexes: steel market demand has tightened, steel mill production has declined, raw material prices have dropped significantly, steel prices have fluctuated downwards, and the traditional steel peak season in April generally shows that the market is not prosperous. Among them, the new order index in April was 39.9%, a decrease of 10.3 percentage points from the previous month, ending the four consecutive months of upward trend; the production index was 47.2%, a decrease of 4.6 percentage points from the previous month, ending the five consecutive months of upward trend. , but still significantly higher than the new orders index; the raw material purchase price index was 43.6%, a month-on-month decrease of 1.6 percentage points. The reasons: On the one hand, the macroeconomic data at the beginning of the month was not as good as expected, which triggered the market's continued concerns about market demand, resulting in a slowdown in market transactions and aggravating the wait-and-see atmosphere in the market; on the other hand, as the real estate industry continued to adjust, the issuance of local bonds declined month-on-month. Domestic demand in the steel industry has tightened due to factors such as a slowdown in the advancement of infrastructure projects and a month-on-month decline in passenger car sales.
Changes in PMI of the steel industry since 2019 (data source: China Wulian Steel Logistics Professional Committee)
● Prices have weakened, coal The industry's raw coal output fell month-on-month
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in April 2023, raw coal output increased year-on-year and declined month-on-month. The growth rate of domestic production continued to fall, and imports continued to increase significantly. , but the growth rate has also slowed down relatively. In April, 380 million tons of raw coal were produced, a year-on-year increase of 4.5%. The growth rate was 0.2 percentage points higher than that in March, with an average daily output of 12.72 million tons. However, affected by the maintenance of some coal mines in the off-season and the downturn in downstream demand, which led to production reductions in some coal mines, April Output fell by 8.6% month-on-month. Imported coal was 40.68 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 72.7%, and the growth rate was 78.0 percentage points lower than that in March.
Monthly trend of coal imports (data source: National Bureau of Statistics)
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In April, domestic coke production was 41.29 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, 0.8 percentage points narrower than March. The average daily output in April was 1.3763 million tons, an increase of 28,600 tons from 1.3477 million tons in March. An increase of 2.12%. Thermal coal has entered the off-season of seasonal demand, coupled with the impact of imported coal, market supply has become looser, and ports and users have maintained high inventories. Power plants have been less enthusiastic about purchasing coal from the market. The overall market has shown a volatile downward trend, and coal prices have weakened. , especially coking coal prices fell sharply.
Summary
According to the industrial production data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the industry in April was affected by domestic demand and exports. Impact, both on the production side and on the demand side, the overall data has slowed down relatively. However, due to the low base in April last year, many industries increased year-on-year, but declined month-on-month. On the whole, it still faces the difficulties of insufficient market demand and heavy downward pressure on the industry. Subsequent development still requires the improvement of relevant policies to consolidate the recovery of the industrial economy.
